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North Korea is facing its seventh year of food shortages arising from weather-related problems. A famine killed tens of thousand of people in 16-7. (Washington Times; December 8, 000; Thomas Wagner, Associated Press) Thousands crossed the border into China looking for food.
(Washington Post; July , 001;Pg. 16; John Pomfret, Washington Post Foreign Service) A large percentage of the population remains susceptible to malnutrition and their living conditions continue to worsen as energy shortages shut down factories and further reduce the ability of the country to feed itself. Although the Korean War ended in 15 with an armistice, tensions remain. As a consequence, the regime continues to spend huge sums and devote scare resources to feeding and maintaining a huge and menacing army.
Environmental Changes as Causes of Acute Conflict
Information on developments and trends within North Koreas borders is difficult to obtain. It is therefore difficult to determine with certainty to what degree North Koreas current problems are due to incompetent leadership, to the failures of a planned economy, or to environmental changes. That said, it is clear that recent changes in northeastern Asias weather have played a role in undermining the North Korean regime. The realization that North Korea was in deep trouble began with an act of nature. On the sticky midsummer day of July 6, 15, the skies over the country darkened. Rains began to pound the earth, rains that were heavy, steady, and unrelenting and that soon turned into a deluge of biblical proportions. The DPRK Bureau of Hydro-Meteorological Service recorded inches of rain in ten days; in some towns and villages, according to the United Nations, as much as 18 inches of rain fell in a single day, bringing floods that were considered the worst in a century. (The Two Koreas; Pg. 70; Don Oberdorfer). Notably also, commenting on this summers drought in North Korea, the Washington Times quoted North Koreas foreign news outlet, KCNA, as saying From the climatological point of view, this long spell of drought is something rare in the history of meteorological observation. It is believe to happen once in 1,000 years. (The Washington Times; June 6, 000; Pg. 15)
Custom Essays on North Korea
North Korea had been experiencing economic dislocations and food shortages since it lost its East European and Soviet trading partners in 11, but the incredible series of punishing blows nature dealt to North Korea in the form of droughts, floods, storms and tidal waves from 15 through 001created serious problems for the regime. North Koreans were consuming oak leaves, grasses, roots, and tree bark and other non-standard food--. (The Two Koreas; Don Oberdorfer; Pg 4) As evidenced by the disbanding of the Korean Peoples Army Sixth Corps in early fall 15 (The Two Koreas; Don Oberdorfer; Pg. 75), the food shortages appear to have had an impact even on the military, that institution on which the North Korean leadership depends to remain in power. That these natural disasters were the results of environmental changes in northeastern Asia rather than something the North Korean regime did appears clear from the appearance of similar phenomena throughout the area, from never-before-seen severe snowstorms in Mongolia to droughts in neighboring parts of China.
Except that Homer-Dixon discusses the impact of environmental change in terms of a developed North being threatened by an environmentally degraded South, and the situation between North Korea and South is reversed in these terms, Homer-Dixons hypothesized three types of conflict are applicable to North Korea in all aspects.
Simple Scarcity Conflicts
River water is one of the three types of resources which Homer-Dixon foresees as a likely cause for simple scarcity conflict, and the conditions for such a conflict exist between North and South Korea They both share a major tributary of the Han River which cuts through the center of Seoul. The river is vital to both countries, which funnel their water from dams to hydroelectric plants providing power and potable water to millions of people. Because North Korea is energy starved, the government has begun diverting large amounts of tributary waters to hydroelectric plants, a diversion of water resources that threatens South Koreas vital interests. Park Eung Kyuk, a public professor at Seouls Hanyang University, observed This is one of the most urgent problems between the North and South since the Korean War (Los Angeles Times; August 6, 001; pg. ; Christopher Torchia, Associated Press).
A more immediate scarcity, however, is food. Flooded coal mines led to reduced amounts of energy to run trains and factories, including those that produced fertilizers, reducing yields in areas not affected by flooding. Dormant factories were sometimes dismantled and its parts sold illegally across the Chinese border for food. Before defecting to the South on 1 February 17, Hwang Jang Yop, one of North Koreas most prominent officials and the architect of its Juche philosophy of self reliance, told a trusted South Korean contact War must be prevented at any cost and to do so South Korea should provide food the people of the North ---. (The Two Koreas; Don Oberdorfer; Pg. 40)
Acute Group Identify Conflicts
Acute group identity conflicts are likely to arise should the North Korean regime implode or further natural disasters lead to mass starvation and the movement of masses of people over the North Korean-Chinese border in search of substance. When Famine struck North Korea in 16-7, many fled to China in search of food. At first, China adopted a humanitarian position and allowed them to stay in the border region. In the summer of 001, however, China launched a campaign of forced reparation of North Korean refugees (Washington Post; July , 001; Pg.16; John Pomfret, Washington Post Foreign Service). This gives rise to the question, what will China do if mass starvation hits North Korea again and hundreds of thousands of North
Koreans try to cross into China in search of food? It appears reasonable to believe that China will take strong measures to close its borders in such circumstances, including firing on refugees. But will happen if some of the refugees include armed North Korean army deserters, possibly even army units? The potential for escalation of a refugee matter into a regional military crisis appears real - and dangerous.
Relative Deprivation Conflicts
There appears to be little likelihood of a relative deprivation conflict in North Korea because the military is solidly in control. There could be surprises and unforeseen turns of events, however. In shifting his power base from the Korean Workers Party to the military (The Two Koreas; Pg.
408; Don Oberdorfer), North Korean leader Kim Chong-IL probably won the support and loyalty of the military with scarce resources, but it appears reasonable to believe he must have alienated and frustrated many in the ministries and KWP. As they find themselves with less of a shrinking
"economic pie"(Homer-Dixon 505), they may be willing to join those lower status elements, farmers and workers, to take action if an opening should appear. As yet, Kim Chong-Il has named no successor. It appears possible a military officer or other power broker could move to seize power for himself in the case of Kim Chong-Ils sudden death, either through natural causes or assassination. A power struggle and civil war could easily breakout with the disenfranchised classes, the KWP and others, throwing their support to that person who they perceive as being most likely to return to them their perceived fair share of the economic pie.
Then, too, as noted by Homer-Dixon, highly centralized dictatorship threatened by revolutionary actions, purges, and strikes are especially prone to engage in external war and belligerence. (Homer-Dixon; Pg. 506) North Korea does not appear to be threatened by revolutionary actions, purges, and strikes, but it is threatened by economic collapse and mass starvation and has long behaved belligerently toward South Korea and the UN forces stationed there. Commenting on the situation in 17, American Commander General Tilelli said that what worried him and his staff was the possibility that the North Korean leadership could become so desperate that the combined power of the U.S. and South Korean forces might no longer deter a massive attack. (The Two Koreas; Pg.7; Don Oberdorfer) Given the lack of what Pyongyangs leadership considers other options, said a member of Tilellis staff, I dont think a decision to attack would be irrational-though it might turn out to be wrong. (The Two Koreas; Pg. 7 Don Oberdorfer) Shortly before his defection, Hwang Jang Yop also warned South Korea that the North is developing nuclear, rocket and chemical weapons and believes it will win in a war. (The Two Koreas; Pg. 404; Don Oberdorfer)
Robert Heilbroners observation that Such regimes could be tempted to use nuclear blackmail as a means of inducing the developed world to transfer its wealth on an unprecedented scale to the underdeveloped world (Homer-Dixon, Pg. 507) appears to describe North Koreas current foreign policy. The United States, South Korea, Japan and China are all delivering fuel and food to satisfy the demands and needs of the North Korean regime. The United States is obliged to provide 500,000 tons of heavy fuel oil annually, as well as to provide two light-water reactors by 00 (with a cost of ca. 1 billion dollars a piece) (The Two Koreas; Pg. 57; Don Oberdorfer). Richard Ullman may be right in arguing that third world nations are unlikely to confront the North violently in the face of the superior destructive capabilities of the rich, but that does not mean they will not and cannot threaten to confront wealthier nations violently. North Korea seems to be an example of an impoverished nation that has already successfully carried out such a threat.
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